Trader – Global Prediction Markets (HK/UK)
Central, Hong Kong, Central, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Full Time
Experienced
Location: Hong Kong / London
Position OverviewWe are a hedge fund seeking an experienced Trader to focus on global prediction and event-driven markets, including political, macroeconomic, geopolitical, and sports-related outcomes. This role centers on identifying and capturing alpha in probability-based markets, managing portfolio-level risk, and executing across regulated and exchange-based prediction platforms (e.g., Kalshi-type venues) and related instruments.
The ideal candidate has a strong background in sports or event-driven trading, a deep understanding of probability pricing, and experience operating in fast-moving, information-driven markets.
Key Responsibilities- Generate and execute trading strategies across global prediction markets spanning political, macroeconomic, geopolitical, and selected sports events
- Price and evaluate binary and multi-outcome contracts using quantitative and probabilistic frameworks
- Manage portfolio exposure, risk limits, and capital allocation across correlated event outcomes
- Identify structural inefficiencies, mispricings, and cross-market arbitrage opportunities
- Monitor real-time information flows, liquidity conditions, and sentiment shifts in news-driven environments
- Integrate prediction market positioning into broader macro and cross-asset portfolio context
- Refine forecasting models and probability calibration processes
- Partner with quantitative, research, and technology teams to improve execution, automation, and analytical infrastructure
- Track regulatory and structural developments impacting prediction markets globally
- Deliver performance attribution and risk reporting to senior management
- 3+ years of experience in sports trading, event-driven trading, prediction markets, derivatives, or related hedge fund environments
- Strong understanding of probability-based pricing, risk-adjusted return optimization, and capital efficiency
- Demonstrated ability to manage exposure in volatile, news-driven markets
- Excellent quantitative and analytical skills with disciplined risk management
- Experience working with exchange-based or regulated event markets preferred
- Bachelor’s degree in Finance, Economics, Mathematics, Statistics, or related quantitative field
- Programming proficiency (Python/SQL) strongly preferred
- Ability to operate independently and make high-conviction decisions under time pressure
- Flexibility to align with global event calendars
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